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Gone for good, dwindling number of South African emigrants return

Source: Daily Maverick, 03/04/2024

Stats SA`s first migration report shows SA has lost almost a million citizens to emigration since 2000. The data also suggests claims about a ‘brain regain’ in SA are overly optimistic.

Grey skies, geopolitical uncertainty, the high cost of living and the exorbitant price of biltong abroad appear not to be strong enough pull factors for South Africa.

Despite cheery anecdotal claims by estate agencies, tax practitioners and international moving companies that South Africans were returning to the country of their birth in droves, Stats SA’s evidence shows that far fewer Saffas are doing so.

In fact, the rising numbers of South Africans emigrating to the UK, Australia, and the US long favoured destinations for South African émigrés have helped boost those country’s populations by significant percentages.

Based on the latest census data, as well as data from household surveys, academic research, the World Bank, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Unesco, the SA Police Service and the departments of Home Affairs and Basic Education, the report was funded through the European Union’s Southern Africa Migration Management Project.

The country’s first migration report shows the brain drain is significant and long-lasting, as reflected in the declining numbers of South Africans returning to our shores in the past decade.
Rising numbers leaving

In 2000, 501 600 South African citizens resided abroad. By 2010, that number had increased to 743,807, and by 2020 the latest available data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs their numbers had reached 914, 901.

Europe is the most appealing region for residence, attracting 39,3% of migrants. North America’s share is at 18.1%; Oceania 29.9%; Asia 2.2%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 0.3%.

Based on the latest census data, as well as data from household surveys, academic research, the World Bank, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Unesco, the SA Police Service and the departments of Home Affairs and Basic Education, the report was funded through the European Union’s Southern Africa Migration Management Project.

The country’s first migration report shows the brain drain is significant and long-lasting, as reflected in the declining numbers of South Africans returning to our shores in the past decade.
Rising numbers leaving

In 2000, 501 600 South African citizens resided abroad. By 2010, that number had increased to 743,807, and by 2020 the latest available data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs their numbers had reached 914, 901.

Europe is the most appealing region for residence, attracting 39,3% of migrants. North America’s share is at 18.1%; Oceania 29.9%; Asia 2.2%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 0.3%.

Since 2000, the number of South Africans in the UK has grown from 136,720 to 247,336; Australia from 80,650 to 199,690; and the US from 65,171 to 117,321. New Zealand has almost tripled its SA emigrants, from 25,359 to 73,846 and Canada popular with healthcare professionals and other highly skilled immigrants from 36,949 to 48,093.
Gone for good

Between 2011 and 2022, a sharply declining number of South Africans came back to give the country another try.

In 2011, 45,866 citizens returned (46.2% were male and 53.8% female), but by 2022, the returns had dropped to 27,983 (with an equal split between male and female).

The distribution across population groups, ages and sex has shifted noticeably since 2011, when white South Africans comprised 56.6% of returnees, contrasting with black Africans at 32%.

In 2022, whites accounted for 52.9% of returnees, black Africans for 37.1%, coloureds 4.9%, Indians/Asians 4.6%, and “other” for 1.9%.

The report shows that by 2022, there was a notable shift in the composition of returnees, with white South Africans still constituting the largest group, but their proportion had decreased to 52.9%. The proportion of black Africans increased to 37.1% of the returnees, while coloureds remained relatively stable at 4.1%, Indians/Asians decreased slightly to 3.3% and “other” increased to 2.7%.

Where they are returning to is also shifting: In 2011, Gauteng saw the highest number of returnees 17,684 (38.6% of the total) but by 2022, that number had dwindled to 7,447, just 26.6% of the total.

The Western Cape is the most popular destination, seeing a sharp rise in returnees (from 23.3% in 2011 to 35% in 2022), despite a slight decrease in absolute numbers.

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