5 reasons to see light at the end of the tunnel for South Africa

Source: SA Good News, 15/07/2015

Many commentators, including myself have explored the problems facing
our country over recent months.
Loadshedding, corruption, attacks on the judiciary, a weak economy and
unemployment come to mind. However, it is not all doom and gloom and
there is light at the end of the tunnel. Let`s spend some time looking
for it
Story Highlights
• People are speaking out, including 26 of SA`s most senior judges,
led by Chief Justice Mogoeng who have committed themselves to a
steadfast fidelity to the constitution.
• The opposition is active, voices within the tripartite alliance are
calling for better delivery, dealing with problems, fighting
corruption, and they are only likely to grow as we approach next
year`s election.
• The economy keeps ticking over, despite the low rate of growth, SA`s
unemployment rate jumped during the first quarter to 26.4% on the
narrow definition, which is the highest it has been since 2011.
• We live in relative peace, most South Africans are free to go about
their day-to-day lives without disruption and violence.
• And then all the other good stuff - a large economy, abundance of
natural resources and beauty, great infrastructure and standards, a
youthful population, freedom of speech and expression and healthy
political discourse
1. People are speaking out
The first thing that we find is that increasing numbers of influential
South Africans are speaking out against the problems that we face.
Last week, in response to attacks on our judiciary, 26 of SA`s most
senior judges, led by Chief Justice Mogoeng committed themselves to a
steadfast fidelity to the constitution.
This was followed by a speech by Deputy President Ramaphosa at the
SACP congress where he warned against attacks against the judiciary
and stated that "the independence of the judiciary is something the
ANC will always defend". A meeting between the judges and President
Zuma is on the cards. It is clear from these moves that the SA
judiciary remains vigorously independent and will not lay down without
a fight. It also has powerful people in its corner.
Increasingly, insiders are speaking out against Nkandla upgrades and
Minister Nhleko`s report. Most vocal has been Gauteng ANC chairperson
Paul Mashatile who reportedly raised the issue again at the recent
summit between the ANC, SACP and SANCO. Nelson Mandela`s daughter and
grandchildren have taken exception to claims by Minister Nhleko that
Mandela`s Qunu home also had a "fire pool", confirming that Mandela
had paid for said swimming pool himself. Even ANC secretary-general
Mantashe has called "reckless" Nhleko`s statements that more money
must be spent on Nkandla. There certainly appears to be a great deal
of division on the Nkandla issue and how it is being handled and
opposition within the ranks is likely to continue growing.
A strong anti-corruption campaign is building in SA, led by civil
society figures such as Zwelinzima Vavi, David Lewis, Mark Heywood and
Irvin Jim. This will culminate in a mass march to the Union Buildings
on 19 August. The march already has wide support, including from
NUMSA, Section27, OUTA, Equal Education and Solidarity. Even the ANC
national spokesman, Zizi Kodwa stated that "people have the right to
march, we can`t stop them" and "I am sure the organisers themselves
are ANC members". This march could be a very effective mechanism of
putting pressure on the ruling party to address corruption issues and
any opposition from them against it could cast them in a very poor
light with their supporters.

2. The opposition is active
Opposition parties in SA are working very hard to keep the pressure on
the ruling party, to build support and to prepare for increasing votes
in next year`s municipal elections and the general election in 2019.
The ANC is facing a two-pronged attack from both sides of the
spectrum. On the one side, the EFF continues to use its position in
parliament to keep the issues surrounding Nkandla and Marikana alive
and well. This is not going unnoticed within the ranks of the
tripartite alliance. The recent speech at the SACP congress by General
Secretary Nzimande where he urged the Young Communist League (YCL) to
take on the EFF and to make sure it "dies" ("organisationally") which
in my opinion highlights the concern that there is for the party`s
growth potential. The EFF remains a populist threat to the ruling party.
On the other side of the spectrum, the DA`s new leader Mmusi Maimane
has been extremely active since his election. Following his #AskMmusi
campaign in May, he actively helped promote the DA`s Vision 2029
strategy and has visited large parts of the country including the
Nelson Mandela Metropole, Nkandla, Soweto, Marikana, Bloemfontein,
Cape Town, Mpumalanga and Polokwane. In the last week, he launched a
charm offensive in Kwazulu Natal. He is also a darling of the SA
media, being quoted daily by many publications. It is difficult to see
a situation where such active electioneering does not result in
increased votes for the DA, especially when the ruling party offers so
much cannon fodder.
I don`t see anything that can better focus the mind of the ruling
party than growth in opposition support. In my opinion, the voices
within the tripartite alliance calling for better delivery, dealing
with problems, fighting corruption, etc. are only likely to grow as we
approach next year`s election. I would be surprised if we do not see
progress on the National Development Plan (NDP) and load-shedding in
particular over the coming months.
3. The economy keeps ticking over
During the first quarter of 2015, the SA gross domestic product (GDP)
grew by 1.3% in real terms (after inflation). Although this is a low
rate of growth, at least we are not going backwards and most forecasts
are for this to lift to over 2% by next year. A resolution of
load-shedding and a pick-up in commodity prices could imply a much
higher growth rate. SA`s unemployment rate jumped during the first
quarter to 26.4% on the narrow definition, which is the highest it has
been since 2011. We need stronger economic growth to turn this trend
around and success with the NDP to markedly turn it around. The rand
has stabilised against the dollar over the past month after
depreciating by c.15% over the past year. The JSE has recovered some
of its recent losses and is now up 2% on a year ago.
Our economic indicators are not looking great at the moment, with the
rise in Government debt to GDP to 44% (compared with 22% in 2009) and
a current account deficit of 5.1% adding further concern. However, we
are nowhere near panic stations and there is room and time to address
these issues. Most importantly, we need to deal definitively with
load-shedding to avoid shaving 0.5% (based on Stage 1 load-shedding)
from our annual GDP. The NDP needs to be rolled out aggressively so
that we can start building infrastructure, creating jobs and boosting
the economy. We also need to avoid "own-goals" like putting pressure
on the tourism industry through more stringent visa requirements
(government needs to relook at this) and strikes.
SA continues to have a robust economy, which creates jobs, earns
foreign currency, delivers taxes and grows in real terms. We just need
to do the right things to avoid a deterioration and more importantly
to put it on the strong growth trajectory.
4. We live in relative peace
I know that crime is a serious issue in SA, which affects the most
vulnerable of society most severely, including the poor, women and
children. It is an issue that deserves our continued attention and our
strongest efforts. However, it is important to acknowledge that we
have made some progress over the past 20 years, although the pace has
been much too slow. More importantly, unlike many places in the world,
we are not in a state of war or civil war. I know it is little comfort
for those that suffer from violent crime, but unlike in warzones like
Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Sudan and the DRC, most South Africans are free
to go about their day-to-day lives without disruption and violence.
They can go to work or school; they can earn a living; they can feed
their families; and they can contribute to society. This is something
we have to be grateful for and something we can build on. Let`s
continue to strive for lower crime levels while using the relative
peace that we enjoy to be productive citizens, to speak out against
injustice and corruption and to interact in a constructive way with
each other.
5. And then all the other good stuff
There is so much that is great about this country. We enjoy a level of
freedom that many countries envy and that we did not know 25 years
ago. We strive for equality, at least of opportunity, although much
more needs to be done. We have wonderful diversity of people that
helps us to find unique solutions and makes this an exciting and
interesting place to live. We have so much natural beauty. We have an
abundance of land and natural resources that if properly utilised, can
make us a leading country. We have made some great contributions to
the world in the past and we are in a strong position to continue
doing so. We are a land of opportunity and we need to grow our skills
base so that more people can benefit from it. We have one of the
strongest business infrastructures in the world and companies and
investors recognise this. Political discourse is vibrant and healthy
in this country and we must make sure that we continue to allow people
to have their say, even if we disagree. We have a young and growing
population and have to think about ways to improve their education and
levels of employment. And finally, we suffer from inefficiency. It may
be strange, but this is really an asset for us, because we can do so
much better without having to spend more money. However, it is only an
asset if we actively become more efficient (otherwise, we are wasting
money).
Conclusion
Yes, there are many things to be concerned about in our country, but
we must be wary not to be fatalistic about it. For every area where we
may be moving in the wrong direction, there are people who are
speaking out, opposing what is happening and taking steps to turn
things around. We have a solid foundation to build on, including a
large economy, abundance of natural resources and beauty, great
infrastructure and standards, a youthful population, freedom of speech
and expression and healthy political discourse (and a growing
opposition). Instead of being down in the dumps, let`s go out and help
drive the country in the right direction.
What can you do? Go out and be productive, work hard, make money,
spend some of it and save some of it. If you are in the position,
create jobs. Demand better education and get involved with schools.
Become more civically active, support campaigns for better service
delivery or against corruption. Reach out to your fellow South
Africans, especially those that are different to you and talk to them.
We are in this together. Be proudly South African and don`t let your
criticisms of our problems become criticisms of our country and its
people. I know you want the best for this country, otherwise you would
not be here.