Why South Africa should care about Brexit

Source: Times Live, 20/06/2016

The UK is eating itself alive. The consequences for the world will be
profound.


On Thursday the UK will vote in a referendum to decide whether to stay
in the EU or leave the organisation of 28 member nations.


From the southern tip of Africa it might seem like a far-away debate
but this move will have repercussions that will hit us sooner rather
than later.


A "leave" vote on Thursday will no doubt be devastating for the
UK.

Already the pound sterling has taken a beating against
major currencies. Business is jittery. Business leaders and economists
are predicting massive job losses and an economy that will
stall.


There is, however, another, greater danger. Brexit - as the break-up
is called - will lead to a Nazi-type radical nationalism, fascism and
racism in Europe.


Already, in France, the right-wing National Front leader Marine le Pen
continues to gain ground and is a serious contender for the presidency
in the 2017 election.


In Germany the racist, right-wing Alternative for Germany has seen
massive growth in support recently by beating an anti-immigration
drum.


In the UK the pressure for exiting the EU emanates from the
right-wing, anti-immigration UK Independence Party leader Nigel
Farage, a man who has claimed that there is a higher risk of sex
attacks by migrants if the country stays in the organisation.


On Friday, Le Pen gave a fiery speech at a beer-swilling rally of
European far-right "patriots" in Austria. She claimed that, by exiting
the EU, the UK "is regaining its liberty, its freedom to trade with
whom it pleases".


Her message was eerily akin to the words of the man accused of
murdering British Labour MP Jo Cox on Thursday.


In court on Saturday, accused Thomas Mair gave his name as "Death to
traitors, freedom for Britain".


What does all this mean? Europe is in danger of falling apart into
tiny little fascist, nationalistic enclaves of the type that existed
before World War 1 and 2.


The UK itself might very well disintegrate: Scotland might want
another referendum on leaving the UK, and then England and Wales will
be left all alone while the Scottish tribe drifts away.


Politically, Britain's governing Conservative Party is so divided over
the issue that it makes our ANC's fissures look as sedate as the
queen's summer garden party.


Already there is grave talk that whatever the result of this week's
referendum Prime Minister David Cameron will face a revolt from within
his own party.


Newspapers report darkly that Boris Johnson, the pro-Brexit former
mayor of London, is preparing to "move" against Cameron after
Thursday.


Daily Mail columnist Stephen Glover wrote: "I foresee months, if not
years, of internecine warfare among Conservatives."


How did the UK get to this point? How did it get to a situation in
which business leaders are warning that the UK faces economic meltdown
if it decides to leave the EU while the "Brexiteers" warn that staying
in means being controlled from Brussels while foreigners "flood" (that
sounds familiar, doesn't it?) the country?
Sadly, Cameron is to blame. After negotiations with the EU in 2013,
and right-wing pressure particularly from Ukip and its leader Farage's
strident anti-immigrant rantings, Cameron promised a referendum on
whether to stay in or leave the EU.


Cameron thought he could get away with a "sensible" result. The gambit
has blown up in his face and now the "Brexiteers" are on the
rise.


Last week an Evening Standard newspaper poll showed that the campaign
to leave Europe was gaining ground with 53% of Britons now wanting to
leave and 47% wanting to stay.


What now? The world is worried about the prospect of the UK turning
its back on the EU and essentially the world. Janet Yellen, US Federal
Reserve chairman, revealed last week that US interest rates were being
held steady, partly because of EU jitters.


"It is a decision that could have consequences for economic and
financial conditions in global financial markets," Yellen said.


For me, former British prime minister Gordon Brown made the most
salient point about what Brexit would mean.


In the New Statesman magazine, he wrote: "Each of the EU's 28 member
states has abolished capital punishment, tightened gun control laws
and championed human rights . We are united by a belief that foreign
policy is not just an exercise in protecting interests but also about
advancing ideals . But now this set of beliefs is under fire."


Thursday's Brexit vote might change the global political architecture
in fundamental ways. An EU without the UK might tip the world back to
the fascistic, mean, dangerous political waters of the 1930s.


We will feel the effects - through trade, diplomacy and other ways -
here in South Africa.