SAA seat capacity loss threatens Johannesburg hub status

Source: Tourism Update, 30/11/2018

Data presented earlier by Olivier Ponti, Vice President Insights
at ForwardKeys (a global travel analytics company) showed that
SAA’s capacity had decreased drastically, but that other airlines
had taken up the slack, resulting in seat capacity on
international inbound flights to South Africa now being on the
rise again, with a 3.2% growth forecast for next year. However,
Sithebe said SAA’s capacity cuts were diminishing the role of
Johannesburg as a hub, because the key driver of a hub was its
dominant carrier. She said SAA accounted for 46% of passenger
numbers at OR Tambo International Airport. “The threat is real
that East and West Africa will take over from Johannesburg as a
hub. We really need to entice passenger (growth) policies with a
dominant airline at Johannesburg,” she said. Cash-strapped SAA has
been scaling back on unprofitable routes to save costs until such
time that they can compete in those markets again. Asked to
clarify the statistics, Ponti said all he could see in the data
was a decrease in SAA’s capacities. “Where this exactly comes from
is a matter of interpretation.”
Addis takes the lead
Meanwhile, good news for sub-Saharan Africa, said Ponti, was that
Addis Ababa was expected to take the lead from Dubai this year, as
the leading connecting hub for long-haul travel to the region.
Visa relaxations bring major opportunities
He said visa relaxations provided the single easiest tool to boost
capacity. Visa facilitation was seen to result in massive growth
in Chinese arrivals within six months of implementation. For
example, visa exemptions in Morocco and Tunisia resulted in 440%
and 214% respective growth of Chinese arrivals to those countries;
Angola received 85% more Chinese after simplifying its visa
procedures; and the implementation of e-visas in Ethiopia resulted
in a 17% jump in Chinese arrivals.
Inbound travel boom expected next year
Ponti said inbound travel to sub-Saharan Africa was on firm
ground, with seat capacity on international flights due to
increase by almost 5% between now and May next year, but the
challenge would be to fill all those extra seats.
He said inbound international flight seat capacity to sub-Sahara
was expected to jump to 9.1% in the next four months, based on
forward bookings, compared with the 4.4% growth experienced
between January and October. He said the region had enjoyed steady
overall growth of 4.1% from all its source markets between January
and October. The biggest share of 6.7% came from the Americas,
with Europe, the rest of Africa, and the Middle East contributing
about 4%, while the slowest growth of 1.1% came from the Asia-
Pacific region. Inbound seat capacity on long-haul and intra-
regional sub-Saharan flights was well matched, both growing by
about 6%.
South Africa received the lion’s share of 22% of all international
arrivals in the region, despite having been a challenging year
with international arrivals down from March to September due to
the Cape’s water crisis and SAA’s challenges.
The fastest growing destinations in sub-Sahara were in East
Africa, the top performers being Kenya (up 19%), Ethiopia (up 12%)
and Tanzania (up 9%), with bookings to Zimbabwe up 12% between
January and October. Forward bookings until January placed
Ethiopia at the top with 40% growth, with Kenya up 24% and
Tanzania up 7%.
Ponti said direct air access varied greatly across the region and
left room for improvement. While Paris was connected directly to
118 cities worldwide, Addis Ababa â€` the region’s best connected
city â€` was only linked directly to 65 cities, Nairobi to 47,
Johannesburg to 43, with Lagos and Accra both to 30