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Expect no bailout. . . as SA leader jets in

Source: Daily News Live, 11/03/2019


Those close to the South African presidency told the Daily News
yesterday that Harare should not expect a bailout from its northern
neighbour, which is facing a tricky election this year.

Ahead of the visit, South Africa’s minister of International Relations
and Cooperation Lindiwe Sisulu said ending sanctions against Zimbabwe
will top Ramaphosa’s agenda.
Ramaphosa’s arrival comes hard on the heels of another high-profile
visit by the President of Botswana Keabetswe Masisi, who signed
several memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with Mnangagwa.Masisi
disappointed his host by refusing to extend a $600 million loan to
Zimbabwe, only providing $94 million for businesses in Botswana to
invest in the troubled country.

In a statement, Pretoria said the two heads of State will review the
bilateral cooperation between their countries as well as review
progress made with the implementation of bilateral agreements.

“To date, the two countries have signed 45 agreements, which cover a
wide range of fields, including trade and investment, health, labour,
migration, defence, taxation, tourism, scientific and technological
cooperation, water and environment,” reads part of the statement.

When Zimbabwe and South Africa last held the BNC they were led by
Robert Mugabe and Jacob Zuma respectively but both men were pressured
to resign before completion of their terms.

The men who succeeded them are bosom buddies and will be seeking to
cement ties between their two countries.

Ramaphosa will be accompanied by a high-powered business delegation.

Several senior South African officials have been in the country since
last week ahead of the structured BNC, first established in 2015.

Zimbabwe and South Africa share a lot in common from their liberation
history, cultural linkages and the commonality of their people.
The neighbouring country keeps the largest number of Zimbabweans,
estimated at over three million.Its companies are the biggest
investors in Zimbabwe.

South Africa ranks as Zimbabwe’s second export destination after China
(US$844 million), with exports into that country amounting to US$189
million.
The neighbouring country tops the list of imports origins at $2,01
billion, followed by China at $442 million, India ($149 million),
Zambia ($133 million) and Hong Kong ($57,8 million).

The BNC comes as Zimbabwean businesses are fragile and in desperate
need of protection in their recovery phase.

After countries such as China chose to keep their wallets closed after
approaches from Harare, those in the corridors of power expect South
Africa to give Zimbabwe the much-needed lift. But Zimbabwe also has a
lot of work to do to convince that there has been adequate progress
onaddressing its financial and governance delinquency challenges.
The permanent secretary in the ministry of Information Nick Mangwana
said that the BNC comes on the heels of another engagement with
Botswana is a vindication of their engagement policy. “We can’t be a
country pushing for great relationships with countries afar when we
have poor relations with those countries with which we share so much
including borders,” he said. “Regarding MoUs or bailouts, let’s not be
pre-emptive about the outcomes of the interactions between our
countries’ leadership. Announcements will be made in their due season”.

Mangwana, however, said Zimbabwe is not in the business of receiving
bailouts but seeks to have mutually beneficial relations with its
neighbours, the nature of which will be revealed after negotiations
have taken place.

Ibbo Mandaza, a political analyst, said the whole hullabaloo was about
nothing.
He said: “These are routine meetings so it is nothing out of the
ordinary.”
Another analyst, Stephen Chan, said Ramaphosa cannot be seen to be
bailing out an unpopular regime in an election year. Chan said the
Zimbabwean economy needs fundamental restructuring, not just a
kick-start from its neighbour. “The South Africans have already made
it clear they have not much to give. It’s Ramaphosa’s
election year. He can’t be seen by his voters to be giving billions to
Zimbabwe when the South African economy itself needs a kick-start,”
said Chan.

International Crisis Group consultant Piers Pigou said while Africa’s
biggest economy may be in a position to help improve liquidity through
the extension of credit facilities or even lend its weight to support
efforts to build the refinancing necessary to cover debt arrears,
South Africa has limited options and other priorities in terms of
available funds.
“It provides an opportunity for Ramaphosa to see how best South Africa
could help move reform and recovery options forward. But this requires
Ramaphosa excavating the full picture, not a selective sanitised
version of developments, as evidenced from minister Ncube’s recent
reform progress report to the IMF,” said Pigou.
Political analyst Maxwell Saungweme believes it’s significant as South
Africa said the visit is timely as Zimbabwe is in an economic and
political bedlam.He said Ramaphosa is also likely to encourage
dialogue to get a solution to the political logjam.
“He is likely to talk to both Mnangagwa and (Nelson) Chamisa. Whatever
his intervention will be, at the end solutions to our problems are
found from within.
“He is a neighbour; he can only recommend but will never solve our
problems. We have to sort out our mess.”

Lawyer Obert Gutu said Ramaphosa’s visit to Zimbabwe is more important
in more ways than one. “Ramaphosa is Mnangagwa’s ally. You don’t need
to be a rocket scientist to appreciate that both leaders enjoy a cosy
political relationship. Africa doesn’t want to be perceived as a
puppet of either the West or the East. As such, solidarity amongst key
African countries is crucial in modern international relations,” said Gutu


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